Do Educators Wave their Arms, To Make their Case for Educational Reform Grow

Questioning the Case for Nationalized Education Reform

When my daughter was 5-years old, she asked, “How do the trees flap their leaves to make the wind blow?”  She quickly learned that correlation does not mean cause, a lesson the average American politician needs to learn when it comes to promoting the public good, especially education. 

Contemporary thinking – that is to say Washington “group think” – promotes the notion that for America to be competitive in the 21^st century, the Federal Government and the state (translation: “We” the taxpayers) need to heavily “invest” (translation: spend) to “reform” (translation: re-forumulate) American education.  The most recent fad is “Common Core State Standards (CCSS),” which sets the stage for removing control of education from the states, creates a one-size fits all, nationalized American K-12 education system, and will cost billions of dollars to implement.

The fundamental question is: “will greater and greater investment in education drive prosperity in the 21^st century or does prosperity create the demand for education?”

The two principal arguments by educational reform proponents are: (a) America’s children are ‘lagging’ behind international peers in terms of academic achievement and (b) the economic vibrancy and the future of the United States relies upon American students outranking their global peers on international tests of academic achievement. These arguments collapse upon examination of peer reviewed, empirical literature, according to Christopher Tienken, editor of the American Association of School Administrators (AASA) Journal of Scholarship and Practice.  Mr. Tienken suggests these are “bankrupt” arguments (Commentary, “AASA Journal of Scholarship and Practice,” v. 7, No. 4, Winter 2011).  Instead, he argues that other factors are more central to economic prosperity than education. For example, he states, “[China’s] continued manipulation of its currency … and iron fisted control of its labor pool, has a greater effect on our economic strength than if every American child scored at the top of every international test…” China’s undervaluation of its currency cost the U.S. almost 1 million jobs, over $200B in lost economic growth, and 1.5% of its Gross Domestic Product in 2010 (Washington Times 2010).  In fact, G20 countries’ economic strength rely more on policy than education achievement.

 To determine if doubling down on education “reform and investment” is prudent, three fundamental questions must be answered: (a) what factors do business leaders believe will drive 21^st century prosperity and to what extent does educational achievement play; (b) how does American students’ educational achievement compare to international peers’ performance; and (3) to what extent does education achievement correlate with a country’s economic prosperity, much less cause it?

What Factors Drive Economic Prosperity?

 According to a 2010 Global Chief Executive Study by IMB Corporation, which surveyed 1,500 of the world’s leading corporate CEOs, the authors identified four 21^st century business Critical Success Factors (CSFs): (a) creative leadership strategies; (b) global collaboration and cooperation among companies and their customer bases; (c) proposal, product, and service differentiation that flows from operational dexterity; (d) use of complexity to a strategic advantage.

Education is not directly identified by the 1,500 CEOs as a critical success factor.  While one may argue that education is an underlying condition for success (even a necessary condition), it is clear from this list that education is not a sufficient condition.  Clearly other factors, such as collaboration, cooperation, operational dexterity, are at play and the extent to which they interrelate is open for debate.  More important, it is unclear if prosperity drives the market for education or the education market drives prosperity.  Which came first, the chicken or the egg?

How does American Education Performance Compare to its Global Peers?

With respect to standardized international tests, the United States had the greatest number of 15 year old students score at the highest levels on the global triennial 2006 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) science test (OECD, 2008). The United States had approximately two-times the number of 15 year-old students who scored at the top levels of the 2006 PISA science test compared to Japan.  The United States accounted for 25% of the top scoring students in the world on the test, even though the United States did not outrank Japan overall.

Over 70% of recent U.S. high school graduates were enrolled in colleges and universities in 2009 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010).  Approximately 30% of U.S. adults between the ages of 25-34 years old hold at least a Bachelor’s degree.  Only six other industrialized nations have a higher percentage of their population holding at least a Bachelor’s degree (OECD, 2009) but their economies pale in comparison to the United States.

 The 2010 World Economic Forum stated that the United States has an outstanding university system.  Eleven of the top 15 universities in the world are located here.  The United Kingdom is next with three out of the top 15 (The Times Higher Education, 2010).  It is illogical that a country with the best university system in the world would have a failing elementary and secondary education system that requires “fundamental” transformation.

Does Educational Achievement Correlate to Economic Prosperity?

The United States ranked either first or second out of 139 nations on the 2010 World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), eight of the 10 years, between 2000 and 2009, and never ranked below sixth place during that period.   No other country matches this record. 

 The US workforce is one of the most productive in the world.  Representing approximately five-percent of the world’s population, the U.S. produces 20% of the world’s Gross Domestic Product.  According the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, (2010) the United States is home to more than 28% of the resident patents granted globally, the largest percentage of any country.  Japan is second with 20%.

 Correlations between student international test rankings and economic strength can be statistically significant and moderately strong when all the small or weak economies like Poland, Hungary, and the Slovak Republic are included in a sample with G20 countries.    For example, if 18 countries are included in the sample, with weak or collapsing economies and whose students have test scores above those of the United States, positive relationship can be shown between test scores and economic growth. (Tienken, 2008). In other words, by using a sample selection that compares academic achievement without any consideration for differences in economic size, is an apples-to-oranges comparison.

Conversely, if the sample includes only the G14 or G20 countries, the relationship between international test rank and economic strength can be non-existent or even negative.  Japan provides an example of this phenomenon.  Japan’s stock market closed at a high of 38,915 points on December 31, 1989.  On October 15, 2010 it closed at 9,500, or approximately 75% lower.  In contrast, Japan has consistently ranked in the Top 10 on international mathematics tests since the 1980s and has always ranked higher than the United States on these tests.  Japan’s economy and stock market have been in shambles for two decades.  Yet, Japan has had national curriculum standards and testing for more than 30 years and consistently outranks most other nations on international math and science tests.

 Compare the United States performance over roughly the same period.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above 1,200 points for the first time on April 26, 1983, the day “A Nation at Risk (National Commission on Excellence in Education, 1983) was released.  On January 4, 2011, the DJIA closed at 11,691 – a ten-fold increase.  The United States consistently outranks Japan on the World Economic Forum’s Growth Competitiveness Index.  Nations like Canada, Australia, Germany, and Switzerland have strong economies, consistently rank higher than the United States on international tests, and do not have a mandated, standardized set of national curriculum standards.

 Conclusions

It is clear from this analysis that something other than academic achievement drives prosperity.  A good working hypothesis is that strong moral values, fiscal responsibility, work ethic, constitutional freedoms, dedication to the rule of law, and limited regulation created a culture of entrepreneurship created prosperity, not the United States’ rankings on international math and science tests.  As America prospered, knowledge grew, and so did the market that served it. 

In support of this hypothesis, one only need consult history.  Up until the founding of the American republic, economies were principally agrarian.  Subsequent to the founding, technological innovation and prosperity exploded, especially in America.   My grandmother, born in the 1890s, started her life living on a farm in the country, riding a horse-drawn wagon 20 miles to town, four times per year.  She lived to own a home in the city, with all its conveniences, and to see America put a man on the moon.  Americans in her generation were fortunate if they completed high school.  Yet that generation’s grit, determination, perseverance, and core values were the forbearers of the Greatest Generation.  This generation lived through a depression, won World War II and Korea, put a man on the moon, and left the Baby Boom generation a dominate American economy. Ten percent or less of the Greatest Generation attended college.

Today, 75% of those graduating high-school attend college, yet unemployment of young adults in the 20 to 24 year old range is 11.9 percent. The solution is not doubling down on our investment in education.  The solution is doubling down on those principles that gave us prosperity in the first place.

Red Herring

New Attorney General Mark R. Herring, asserts that Virginia must be “on the right side of history,” and that Virginia’s ban on same-sex marriage is unconstitutional (“AG sparks clash on gay marriage,” Richmond Times Dispatch, January 24, 2014).  Herring said his office no longer will defend the commonwealth's gay marriage ban, which is part of the state constitution, in federal court.

The AG’s statement is simply a red herring: he may want to be on the right side of history, but he is on the wrong side of the law.  As AG, Herring has taken an oath to uphold the Virginia Constitution – all of it.  Until the law is changed through constitutional amendment or is overturned by the United States Supreme Court, he has an obligation to uphold it.  If he does not, all means legally available to the people of Virginia should be pursued to remove him from office.

No matter where one stands on an issue, all must follow the rule of law, especially those who we have been elected to enforce those laws.