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Wednesday, July 11, 2012

How Obama Wins Even If He Loses: Going Short Against the “Ballot” Box

On January 25, 2010, President Obama told ABC News he remained determined to tackle health care and other big problems despite the political dangers to his presidency: "I'd rather be a really good one-term president than a mediocre two-term president."  It appears he may get his wish, at least on serving one term. How does he achieve his goal of being “a really good one-term president,” at least in his own eyes?  The answer is that he sets in place political mechanisms that ensure that America is “fundamentally transformed” even if he is not re-elected: in financial jargon, he “goes short against the box.”

“Going short against the box” is taking a leveraged financial position that ensures that a portfolio’s value is preserved, independent of market movement.   It works like this.  Suppose you own 100 shares of stock at $10 per share ($1,000) and believe it may either appreciate or depreciate 30% in value within the next month.   To protect financial value, you borrow from your broker an additional 100 shares of your existing stock for a period of one-month and pay the broker 5% of the value ($50) for the right to hold the stock and exercise its rights. You then sell the borrowed shares in the market for their current value ($1,000).  If you are correct, and the market falls 30% within one month, you simply buy back the 100 borrowed shares from the market at $700 and return them to the broker within one month.  You net $250 on a $50 investment.  If you are incorrect and the market goes up 30%, you can sell your portfolio shares at $1,300 less the $50 insurance, and return the shares to the broker. It’s a win-win: for $50, you protected your portfolio’s value. 

So what has this to do with politics and President Obama’s strategy?  Actually, it’s quite simple.  While America is “betting” that our Country’s prospects are going to improve, the President is “betting” that they will not.  To hedge his bet, he is putting in place a strategy that will “fundamentally transform” America’s form of government and economy while ensuring that it is constitutionally difficult for any future Congress to undo the damage that has been done.  He is not motivated by his oath to uphold the Constitution, which he views as an antiquated document that places limits on what government can do instead of what it “should do” for its citizens, especially with respect to wealth redistribution. Instead, he is motivated by his progressive / socialist ideology that our constitutional republic and capitalist economy is a direct impediment to implementing global governance and social justice. I leave it to the reader to obtain and read Dinesh D’Souza’s book The Roots of Obama’s Rage, which is the best psychological / motivational study of the President that has been published to date.
What is the evidence that the President is “going short against the ballot box?”  There are three key components to his strategy that must be completed before the end of 2012.  If implemented, they will effectively allow him to circumvent Congress and make it irrelevant as a decision making body:
·        Marginalization of the Constitution through ratification of five UN-sanctioned international treaties.
·        Centralizing government power in the executive branch through implementation of selected executive orders and regulatory overreach.
·        Financial collapse of the economy through continued deficit spending.
The remainder of this article presents evidence that this strategy is in play.
UN Treaties.  Currently, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is actively negotiating five United Nations treaties, which if ratified by the Senate in a lame duck session of Congress and signed by the President prior to his departure in January 2013, will bind the United States to international laws that are antithetical to Constitutional principles. Further, if ratified and signed, they may only be set aside by having the signatories to the Treaty release us or by passing Constitutional amendments.   Their provisions will be legally enforceable in a United States Court of Law.  These treaties also have one other thing in common: on the surface each addresses a moral concern for which people have empathy. However, the price associated with adjudicating these concerns through the UN is nothing short of tendering our personal liberties.  These five treaties are briefly described below.
Rights of The Child Treaty.  This treaty will create a legal requirement that the United States contribute foreign aid to ensure that other less fortunate nations have enough money to feed and clothe their children.  This Treaty was originally entertained by the G.H.W. Bush and W. Clinton administrations because it addresses international child prostitution and human trafficking – issues that are addressed in other places – but was rejected because of its implications to United States sovereignty.  It was signed by other nations, including Great Britain.  When Prime Minister Cameron cut welfare benefits as part of his austerity program, he was sued by the Child’s High Commissioner in Britain under the Treaty of the Child.  Think President Obama will not sign it?  Think again.  Senate Bill S. 2433, The Global Poverty Act, was introduced on the Senate Floor by then-Senator Barack Obama on December 7, 2007.  It ultimately failed, but would have required the U.S. President to develop and implement a comprehensive strategy to further the United States foreign policy objective of promoting the reduction of global poverty, the elimination of extreme global poverty, and the achievement of the United Nations Millennium Development Goal of reducing by one-half the proportion of people worldwide, between 1990 and 2015, who live on less than $1 per day. This would have required the United States to add 0.7 percent of the U.S. gross national product ($23 billion to $98 billion a year) to its overall spending on Humanitarian Aid. The bill was endorsed by The Borgen Project, Habitat for Humanity, Bread for the World, RESULTS, and CARE.
UN Small Arms Treaty.  This Treaty is intended to prevent private citizens from selling arms overseas.  The fact is that 90% of all arms sold overseas are sold by governments.  The real intent is to require all signatories to institute a method for registering and controlling arms within their borders and enforcing these laws through the UN.  United States citizens would be denied their Second Amendment rights.
The Law of the Sea Treaty.  The Law of the Sea Treaty gives the UN veto power over the use of the United States territorial waters and would require that the US cede half of its offshore oil revenue to the UN.  Like the Kyoto Protocol, which pretended to be an effort to save the earth from the effects of the industrial revolution, LOST pretends to be an effort to protect the world's oceans from environmental damage and remove its natural resources as a cause of potential conflicts between nations. Like the Kyoto Protocol, LOST is an attempt at the global redistribution of power and wealth, by giving veto over all of mankind's activities to a global body — in this case something called the International Seabed Authority, located in Kingston, Jamaica. The ISA will have the power to regulate 70% of the earth's surface, placing seabed mining, fishing rights, deep-sea oil exploration, and the activities of the U.S. Navy under control of a global bureaucracy. It provides for a global tax that will be paid directly to the ISA by countries seeking to develop the resources in and under the world's oceans.
International Criminal CourtIn 1994, the UN’s International Law Commission presented its final draft statute for an International Criminal Court to the UN General Assembly.  In May 2002, before ratification by the United States Senate, the Bush administration notified the UN that the United States was withdrawing from the International Criminal Court Treaty. As written, U.S. service members and officials would have been put at risk of politicized prosecution and charged with war crimes as a political move by other nations, especially in this age of terrorism.  This in turn would have discouraged U.S. military engagement in the world: a recipe for isolationism. 
Code of Conduct in Outer Space.  In a press statement on January 17, 2012, Hillary Clinton expressed concern about space debris and declared the need to join with the international community in addressing the “problem.” “A Code of Conduct,” she stated, “will help maintain the long-term sustainability, safety, stability, and security of space by establishing guidelines for the responsible use of space.”  Hiding behind this idea of making outer space “green,” is the proposal of an “outer space military” governed by a UN body, which will include many bad actors. This treaty, if ratified, will make Congress irrelevant in matters of space, including missiles, satellites, and any other object propelled into space. This is a very dangerous treaty.
Implementation of Executive Orders and Use of Regulatory Power.  Beyond his pursuit of international treaties, President Obama has signed 130 Executive Orders since entering office. Many of these of these orders are routine; however, the scope and timing of a number of these are circumspect.  When combined with his penchant to by-pass Congress through regulatory fiat, his motivations become clear:  his goal is to expand regulatory power and centralize control in the executive branch, while marginalizing Congressional authority. During his tenure, executive orders and regulatory overreach provide him with the authority and power to “transform America.”  Even if he is not re-elected, in the longer term, it results in policies that achieve the Administrations overarching goal of weakening individual rights, emphasizing collective rights, and redistributing wealth in society. Once set in motion, it will take years if not decades to reverse the damage inflicted on our Constitutional Republic, if it can be reversed at all.  Evidence that this strategy is in play follows:
·        When Congress refused to pass the Dream Act, which would provide a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, Mr. Obama issued an executive order that directed law enforcement officers to no longer deport certain illegal immigrants.
·        When Congress refused to pass Cap-and-Trade legislation, Mr. Obama directed his Environmental Protection Agency to implement it via a broad reading of the Clean Air Act. As a result the cost of energy will increase and up to eight percent of the country’s energy capacity will no longer be economically viable.
·        When Congress did not pass the Net-Neutrality Act, he directed his Federal Communications Commission to do it unilaterally.  When SOPA and PIPA were rejected by the Congress, he threatened to unilaterally take action – without Senate confirmation – to implement through executive order the UN’s Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA).  ACTA is nothing more than an international version of SOPA and PIPA.
·        Mr. Obama instructed his justice department not to prosecute persons using medical marijuana, even though Congress refused to repeal the law that makes it a criminal act.
·        When Congress decided not to repeal the Defense of Marriage Act, he directed his Attorney General to stop defending it in a court.
·        Mr. Obama has demonstrated the same behavior with the states.  Attempts to address illegal immigration at the state level have been blocked by law suits, all while the Federal government refuses to address the border crisis even though they are required to do so under the Constitution.  Drilling on private land for oil and natural gas have been blocked using imagined federal authority to regulate “fracking,” a practice that has historically been the purview of the states.
This list is could be much longer, but it does illustrate the point: the Obama Administration is circumventing Congress to ensure that the command and control structure is in place that allows the President to act with impunity.
The Economy.  The last part of the President’s strategy is to weaken America economically.  One is truly not a slave until he or she is destitute and owns no property or even worse is in debt to his or her enemies.  In this regard, the Obama administration has single-handedly increased our Country’s debt to $15.2-trillion dollars – a  $5-trillion increase in less than four years.    For the first time in the history of our Country, our debt ($15.2T) is greater than our gross domestic product ($14.95T), and our gross domestic product is flattening out. In 2000, the United States’ GDP represented 22% of the World’s GDP.  In 2011 it was 19%, a decline of almost 14%. 
To put our Country’s spending and debt into simple terms, one only has to contrast 2011 tax receipts and expenditures to those in 2000:
·        In 2011, expenditures were $3.6T.  In 2000, expenditures were $1.8T.  This is a 100% increase.
·        In 2011, tax receipts were $2.3T.  In 2011, tax receipts were $2.0T.  This is 13% increase.
·        In 2011, tax receipts ($2.3T) were just sufficient to cover government Entitlements (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other fixed obligations) AND interest on the debt.  Expenditures for Defense AND ALL OTHER FUNCTIONS OF GOVERNMENT ($1.3T) – including your own personal favorite program, whatever that might be – were covered by DEFICIT spending and had to be borrowed.
So what is the bottom line?  Our debt exceeds our GDP.  The interest rate on the debt (4.7% per year based on the 2000 to 2011 average) exceeds our projected growth rate in GDP (4.1% per year according to the CBO). Even if we were operate a balanced budget at the 2011 level of tax receipts ($2.3T) – which was only sufficient to cover entitlements and interest on the debt – the projected GDP growth would be insufficient to cover the cost of servicing the debt.   Our deficits and debt would continue to grow. At some point, these debts will have to be paid.
So what is the President’s plan?  Do nothing. Continue to “invest” (viz., spend).  His plan has been rejected in the House by a vote of 414 to 0 and the Democrat controlled Senate refuses to entertain the House’s budget or put forward one of their own.
Summary. In summary, the President has decided to go “short against the box.”  As he recently commented to outgoing Russian President Medvedev, during a meeting on missile defense, "This is my last election ... After my election I have more flexibility," Obama said, expressing confidence that he will win a second term. Medvedev’s response: "I will transmit this information to Vladimir." But even if he does not win, he has set up a framework – using treaties, executive orders, and regulations – to effect an economic suicide pact that will force America toward take its “proper” place in the global governance framework.
The last chapter in this story will be written by the American people.  My responsibility is to “transmit this information to the American people.”  It is my prayer that they take the advice of Benjamin Franklin who said:
“I agree to this Constitution with all its faults, if they are such: because I think a General Government necessary for us, and there is no Form of Government but what may be a Blessing to the People if well-administered; and I believe further that this is likely to be well administered for a Course of Years and can only end in Despotism as other Forms have done before it, when the People shall become so corrupted as to need Despotic Government, being incapable of any other.” – Benjamin Franklin

Remember ...

"You're entitled to your own opinion, but you're not entitled to your own facts," Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan.

"Against public stupidity, the gods themselves are powerless." Schiller.

“Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.” – George Orwell, 1984

"Statistics are no substitute for judgement," Henry Clay

"The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples' money," Margaret Thatcher